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reopt Handbook
reopt Handbook
Customer Conversion Simulation

Reading Guide

How to Read the EvidenceConversion Rate Intervals

Conversion Atlas

Conversion Atlas by ChannelConversion Atlas by ProductConversion Atlas by RoleKorean Conversion Atlas

Paid Marketing

Paid Channel BaselinesReported and Incremental ConversionsCreative, Retargeting, and Saturation

Referral Marketing

Referral Funnel MetricsReferral Experiments and Limits to Spread

Partners and Influencers

Influencer Marketing ConversionPartnerships, Collaborations, and Sponsorships

Ecommerce

Ecommerce Conversion BaselinesEcommerce Funnels and CartsEffect Sizes of Ecommerce Levers

SaaS

Self-Serve SaaS ConversionEarly-Stage SaaS ConversionSales-Led Conversion

Apps

Mobile App Acquisition and RetentionApp Subscription ConversionDesktop App Conversion

Consultation and Application Forms

Building Forecasts

Expert Forecasts and CalibrationChoosing a Forecasting ModelLLM Synthetic Customers

Korean Case Studies

Korean Cases: Advertising and CommerceKorean Cases: Consultations, Finance, and Public Experiments

Appendix

Handbook›Customer Conversion Simulation›Korean Conversion Atlas
한국어KOEnglishEN

Korean Conversion Atlas

Locate conversion evidence from Korean companies and users, identify usable simulation inputs, and distinguish unsupported figures and missing evidence.

Written and reviewed by Eric Han · Co-founder & CTO, reopt

Key takeaways

  • Evidence quality varies by domain. Filings provide stage rates, such as Millie's Library free-subscription-to-paid at 34.7–37.3%, but no official industry ad-channel benchmarks were found.
  • Vendor ecommerce aggregates report a 2.06% mean and 0.72–5.05% by industry. These are 2021's top 100 stores; for a new store, widen the interval and assess outcomes at the 5th percentile.
  • Frequently repeated figures such as Korean ecommerce 1.33%, Powerlink CTR 0.8–2.4%, and SMS opens 98% lack verified sources or formulas.
  • We found no source reporting live-commerce conversion of 5–8% that also disclosed its sample. Cumulative Naver buyers divided by views is around 1%.
  • Official Naver/Kakao industry benchmarks, friend-invite-to-signup conversion, and photo-upload effects were not found.

Inclusion Rules

This chapter includes measurements of Korean companies, the Korean market, or Korean users. Global and Asia-Pacific averages are excluded; global companies appear only for Korean campaigns or separately reported Korean figures. Korean companies with global samples are labeled accordingly. Cases are divided into Advertising and Commerce, Subscriptions, B2B, Messaging, and Referrals, and Consultations, Finance, and Public Experiments.

Grades follow How to Read the Evidence. Korean case tables place grades at the end of the first cell.

Success stories are sales material

Advertising platforms and tool vendors select successful customers for publication. Use grade D cases only for direction, not numerical inputs. Explicitly null or failed cases are rare and are included prominently when found.

Where Evidence Exists

DomainStrongest evidenceRepresentative figureMissing evidence
Paid channelsB, Naver transaction-log analysisDirectly managed advertiser CPC mean 992, median 267, units unstatedOfficial industry CTR/CVR; reported-to-incremental multipliers
Store purchase conversionC, vendor aggregatesMean 2.06%; industry 0.72–5.05%Official average; device rates
Repeat purchaseB, securities filingBuyer → repeat buyer 61.2%, cumulative three yearsOther companies with matching definitions
Live commerceC, Naver cumulative announcementsBuyers/views about 0.9–1.0%, calculatedOfficial Naver/Kakao conversion rates
SubscriptionsB, securities filingFree subscription → paid 34.7–37.3%Same metric for other apps
B2B SaaSB filings; C surveysSuspensions + cancellations 4.7–11.5%; inquiry → meeting about 9–42.9%, lower bound calculatedTrial/freemium conversion
Email / messagingC, vendor aggregatesEmail opens 9.6–19.9%; AlimTalk clicks 11.52%App-push averages; recent ATT consent
ReferralsD, company announcementsShare-referred participation 65%; viral K 0.4 → 0.7, defined differently from this bookInvite → signup; cannibalization
InfluencersB, papers measuring word of mouth10% more seeded WOM associated with about 0.4% more nonseeded WOM in specialist forums, calculatedIncremental sales
Consultations / appointmentsB, hospital records and financial authoritiesOutpatient no-shows 5–7%; auto-insurance comparison → contract 9.2%Photo-upload effects; nonhospital form/KakaoTalk attendance
App acquisitionC, vendor aggregatesKorean Apple Ads CPI $1.84; tap → install 51%Google/Meta app-ad rates

Simulation Inputs

Potential inputs graded C or higher are below. When contexts differ, keep the mean, lower mean × kkk to 1–2, widen the interval, and assess outcomes at the 5th percentile.

StageInputEvidence and conditions
Store traffic → purchaseMean 2.06%; industry 0.72–5.05%Top 100 stores, 2021; denominator unclear. New stores should lower mean × kkk and assess outcomes at the 5th percentile
Live view → purchaseAbout 1%Naver cumulative 2020–2021; views denominator; order-of-magnitude only
Free subscription → paid34.7–37.3%One content-subscription company; free starters denominator. Its January–August 2022 value of 42.62% falls outside this range
Monthly resubscription76.2–87.6%Same company's B2C only; rose from 76.2% in 2020 to 87.6% in first-half 2023
B2B inquiry → meetingAbout 9–42.9%Self-reports from 93 firms collected by a rapid-response tool vendor. About 9% back-calculated from 4.7×. Faster responders at upper end; tool customers 39%
Comparison → contractAuto insurance 9.2%; travel insurance 62.5%Platform-attributed financial products; before March 2025 version 2.0
Outbound phone connectionAbout 9–47%; 72% in a prior-SMS casePublic-information calls, some unclear denominators; not directly submitted leads

Hospital no-show figures mostly concern follow-up patients and are not consultation-booking inputs. Use your own data.

Korean ecommerce order intervals

Estimate traffic from budget and CPC; choose an industry or channel for BIGIN's 2021 purchase rate. KRW 500 CPC is hypothetical because no public benchmark was found. Replace it with a small internal test.

Load a benchmark
Fixed inputs
Stage rates

k sets the spread around the mean. For the same mean, a larger k narrows the interval. A small mean×k skews the distribution and pulls the median below the mean.

Traffic → purchaseBIGIN 2021, top 100 stores
Values set as a range
Reported ÷ incremental multiplier
Incremental orders
103orders
90% interval 8orders ~ 464orders
Mean 151orders · Actual count 8orders ~ 468orders · Chance of zero 0.7%
Ad spend per order
48,700KRW
90% interval 10,800KRW ~ 593,000KRW
Distribution of Incremental orders5% 8orders · Median 103orders · 95% 464orders
0orders372orders744orders
Inputs that move the result most

Each input alone moves to its 5th and 95th percentile with others at the mean. Measure the top one first.

  • Traffic → purchase8orders ~ 397orders
  • Reported ÷ incremental multiplier106orders ~ 227orders

8,000 runs. Stages are independent. If they move together the real interval is wider; if they move in opposite directions it is narrower. The 90% interval holds only rate uncertainty around the expected value; the actual count adds chance variation in counts. Vertical lines mark the 5th percentile, median (darker), and 95th. The last bin collects values above the 99th percentile. Concentration k is an author judgment chosen for mean × k around 1. Do not compare confidence using k alone. The multiplier is an author judgment based on US Meta/Haus evidence. The 2.06% mean pools all traffic; channel figures use last touch.

Values to Avoid

These common Korean-language claims have unverified sources/formulas or are easily misinterpreted.

ValueOriginWhy not to use it
Korean ecommerce average 1.33%Recap of a 2020 presentationPresented as hearsay, with no source or sample
Powerlink CTR 0.8–2.4%, CPC about KRW 530Agency article, citing a “2024 Naver Business Platform Report” for its industry tableNo such title found in Naver's report list. The same paragraph's 600 million daily impressions and 48 million clicks imply 8%, calculated
Powerlink CTR 3.8%, conversion 4.1%Another article by the same agency, claiming official statisticsNo link; conflicts with the preceding values
Bizboard CTR 0.5–1.5%Agency articleNo evidence; another article from the same company gives 0.5–1.0%
Remember CTR 2–5%+Agency articleNo source; conflicts with media-kit forecasts of 0.3–2%
SMS open rate 98%Messaging-vendor articleMixes overseas/internal figures without explaining how SMS opens were measured
No-shows of 20% for restaurants, 18% for hospitals, and other industriesCoverage citing Hyundai Research InstituteOriginal report not found; years/attributions differ. University-hospital records are mostly 5–7%, up to 14–15%, leaving the 18% definition unclear
Dental appointment adherence 56%2003 paperOn-time arrival among attendees, not no-shows
Three-minute versus 30-minute callbacks triple bookingsAgency articleOnly described as industry data
Five-minute response 4× / 100×; one-minute response +391%Tool-vendor articleConflicting claims within the same vendor's articles; no source
Proprietary easy-payment conversion 95% versus regular 70%Payment-vendor articleNo sample/period; strong selection among customers with stored payment details
App 21%, mobile web 4%Criteo 2018Korean report, but supporting slide covers Northeast Asia
Same-day cart purchase 54%Yozm IT contribution citing SAP 2018Original and sample unverified
300 leads for KRW 5 million; lead costs reduced 500%Remember sales pageFirst is hypothetical; a 500% reduction is arithmetically impossible
Friend invitations cost one-tenth of paid adsUtility site's ABLY articleNo basis for treating it as company-disclosed data
Coupang Partners conversion 3%Calculator siteCalled an observed average but used as an unsupported input assumption

Missing Evidence

Searches found no public values for:

  • Korean industry CTR/CVR benchmarks from Naver, Kakao, or Meta, or Korean reported-to-incremental multipliers. Kakao industry comparisons are available only inside advertiser interfaces.
  • Official Cafe24/Naver/Coupang purchase conversion, Korean device rates, or cart-abandonment studies that disclose their samples.
  • Participation, invite-to-signup, and cannibalization in paid-reward referral programs at Toss, Karrot, Baemin, KakaoBank, and others.
  • Trial/freemium conversion at flex, Channel Talk, JANDI, Speak, or Wrtn; role-level conversion; actual Remember CPL.
  • Photo-upload effects, nonhospital form/phone/KakaoTalk attendance comparisons, aesthetic-treatment consultation conversion, or Korean randomized SMS appointment-reminder experiments.
  • Korean randomized tests of free shipping, page speed, or friend invitations.

The search itself has limits. “Not found” does not mean nonexistent.

  • Direct KCI/RISS searches, Korea Chamber of Commerce and Korea Consumer Agency surveys, Naver earnings calls, and some technical blogs such as KREAM, ABLY, Brandi, idus, and Trenbe were not reviewed comprehensively.
  • Form-gated materials were not obtained, including full Stibee and Recatch reports and Remember webinar materials.
  • Full texts of Jung et al. 2023 and Chu/Joo 2024 could not be opened.

Related docs

Korean Cases: Advertising and Commerce

Review Naver log analyses, advertising-platform cases, store conversion, repeat-purchase filings, company experiments, and live commerce with denominators and evidence grades.

Korean Cases: Consultations, Finance, and Public Experiments

Review hospital no-shows, SMS and phone contact, insurance retention and comparison-to-contract, consultation-to-purchase cases, and randomized Korean studies with sample caveats.

Verification

AI Security and Compliance Operations · A checklist for validating AI security and compliance operations.

Conversion Atlas by Role

Review cold-email replies, LinkedIn costs, product conversion figures, and gaps in public evidence for CMOs, developers, HR, finance, founders, and other roles.

Paid Channel Baselines

Establish pre-spend baselines using industry CTR, CPC, CVR, and CPL for Google search, Meta, TikTok, and LinkedIn, and identify gaps for Korean channels.

On this page

Inclusion RulesWhere Evidence ExistsSimulation InputsValues to AvoidMissing Evidence