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reopt Handbook
reopt Handbook
Customer Conversion Simulation

Reading Guide

How to Read the EvidenceConversion Rate Intervals

Conversion Atlas

Conversion Atlas by ChannelConversion Atlas by ProductConversion Atlas by RoleKorean Conversion Atlas

Paid Marketing

Paid Channel BaselinesReported and Incremental ConversionsCreative, Retargeting, and Saturation

Referral Marketing

Referral Funnel MetricsReferral Experiments and Limits to Spread

Partners and Influencers

Influencer Marketing ConversionPartnerships, Collaborations, and Sponsorships

Ecommerce

Ecommerce Conversion BaselinesEcommerce Funnels and CartsEffect Sizes of Ecommerce Levers

SaaS

Self-Serve SaaS ConversionEarly-Stage SaaS ConversionSales-Led Conversion

Apps

Mobile App Acquisition and RetentionApp Subscription ConversionDesktop App Conversion

Consultation and Application Forms

Building Forecasts

Expert Forecasts and CalibrationChoosing a Forecasting ModelLLM Synthetic Customers

Korean Case Studies

Korean Cases: Advertising and CommerceKorean Cases: Consultations, Finance, and Public Experiments

Appendix

Handbook›Customer Conversion Simulation›Conversion Atlas by Product
한국어KOEnglishEN

Conversion Atlas by Product

Compare conversion ranges for ecommerce categories, SaaS sales models, app subscriptions, developer tools, and AI products with denominators and evidence grades.

Written and reviewed by Eric Han · Co-founder & CTO, reopt

Key takeaways

  • Median ecommerce session conversion is 2.5% for beauty, 2.4% for health, 2.3% for food and beverage, and 1.0% each for fashion and home/furniture, among Shopify stores.
  • Overall median SaaS free-to-paid conversion is 8%. Card-required trials reach about 30%, but lower visit-to-signup rates mean the end-to-end effect differs by source.
  • For apps, 2.0% of downloads convert to paid within 35 days. Category differences are substantial: health 2.9%, games 1.0%.
  • Paid penetration calculated from filings is not a conversion rate. Dropbox at about 2.6%, Slack at 14.7%, and Duolingo at 9% each use different denominators.
  • Median free-to-paid conversion for developer products is 5%, half the 10% for nondeveloper products. This is survey data with an undisclosed subgroup sample size.

Ecommerce

The denominator is sessions; the sample is Shopify stores using Littledata (July–October 2026, grade C).

Session conversion by category
Bars run from the median to the top-20% threshold. This is an upper-half range, not a forecast interval for your store. Shopify stores, July–October 2026, grade C.
  • Beauty / skincare2.5% ~ 3.8%
  • Health / supplements2.4% ~ 3.8%
  • Food / beverage2.3% ~ 3.3%
  • Fashion / apparel1.0% ~ 1.9%
  • Home / furniture1.0% ~ 1.8%
CategoryMedian CVRTop 20% thresholdMedian add-to-cartMedian checkout completionStores
Overall1.4%2.7%6.8%49%436
Beauty / skincare2.5%3.8%12%50%39
Health / supplements2.4%3.8%8.2%60%35
Food / beverage2.3%3.3%11%53%32
Fashion / apparel1.0%1.9%6.0%48%76
Home / furniture1.0%1.8%5.0%51%63

Sources: Littledata conversion, add-to-cart, and checkout completion. See Ecommerce Conversion Baselines for broader coverage.

SaaS Sales Models

The denominator is leads/free signups, with paid conversion within six months. This is a self-selected survey. “Good” means the 50th percentile and “great” the 75th. Ungated freemium lets people try the product before creating an account.

Good free-to-paid ranges by sales model
50th-percentile ranges; self-selected survey of 200 products, grade C
  • Trial, card required25% ~ 35%
  • Ungated freemium7% ~ 9%
  • Freemium3% ~ 5%
  • Trial, no card4% ~ 6%
  • Reverse trial (small sample)4% ~ 6%
ModelGoodGreatVisit → signupPaying customers per 1,000 visits
Freemium3–5%8–12%9% (all freemium, including ungated)5 (all freemium, including ungated)
Ungated freemium7–9%8–12%7%5.6
Trial, no card4–6%10–15%——
All trials (20% card-required)——4.5%3.6
Trial, card required25–35%50–60%3.5%10.5
Reverse trial4–6%8–12%——

Source: ChartMogul, Growth Unhinged, and ProductLed, SaaS Conversion Report 2026 (200 products, grade C). The overall 8% median is free-to-paid, not visit-to-signup. “Paying customers per 1,000 visits” multiplies stage-level medians for illustration; it is not an observed cohort result. The source explicitly flags the small reverse-trial sample.

SaaS Product Types

TypeMetricValueEvidence
AI-native / hybridGood and great free-to-paid6–8%, 15–20%ChartMogul 2026, C
Conventional SaaSSame5–7%, 12–16%Same source, C
B2BSame6–10%, 15–20%Same source, C
B2C / mixedSame5–7%, 8–12%Same source, C
Developer toolsFree → paid; visit → signup5%, 10%OpenView data via Boldstart, C
Software subscriptionsTrial → paid16.6%Recurly 2026, C (sample not stated)
HR softwareVisit → trial; trial → paid8.1%, 22.7%First Page Sage, D
FintechSame9.0%, 19.4%Same source, D
CRMSame9.7%, 29.0%Same source, D
CybersecuritySame7.4%, 21.9%Same source, D
Enterprise softwareSame5.5%, 18.6%Same source, D

Limits of First Page Sage figures

The sample comprises 86 SEO-agency clients, and calculation methods are undisclosed. These figures are included because no independent product-type data were found, but do not use them as inputs. Many blogs also repeat them without attribution.

Paid Penetration from Filings

These figures show paying customers as a share of registered or active users or organizations, rather than conversion over a defined period (all calculated, grade B).

CompanyValueDenominatorSource
DropboxAbout 2.6% (upper bound)More than 700 million cumulative registered usersFY2025 10-K
SlackAbout 14.7%Organizations with at least three people2019 S-1
DuolingoAbout 9.0%Quarterly average MAUQ2 2026 shareholder letter

App Subscriptions

RevenueCat State of Subscription Apps 2026 covers more than 115,000 apps using RevenueCat (grade B).

CategoryDownload → trialTrial → paidDownload → paid within 35 days
Overall——2.0%
Health6.9%37.7%2.9%
Business9.1%—2.6%
Games4.4%25.0%1.0%
Travel4.1%43.5%—
Shopping——1.3%

“—” marks chart-only values that could not be confirmed numerically. The source includes more categories. See App Subscription Conversion for detail.

Early Startups and Desktop Apps

ScopeMetricValueEvidence
SaaS below $300K ARRMedian annual customer retention53%ChartMogul 2023, B
Early SaaSStage-specific free-to-paid ratesNot foundEarly-Stage SaaS Conversion
New subscription appsReaching $1K monthly revenue within two years17.3%RevenueCat, B
Free desktop software (Firefox, 2007)Visit → daily active at 30 daysAbout 20%Mozilla, B
Paid indie desktop software (2009)Median sales per visit0.70%Brice, C
Steam gamesMedian first-week sales ÷ wishlists10.5%GameDiscoverCo, C

Referral Programs by Product

Conversion means conversions per shared-link click; acquisition means converted customers per referrer. These are industry medians published by Extole, without sample counts (grade C).

IndustryShare rateConversionAcquisition
Banking15.6%13.4%30%
Lending30%9.4%16%
Apparel5.2%15.8%15%
General retail7.7%10.8%21%
Health / beauty7%9.1%14%
Hotels / travel7.3%2.2%11%
B2B4.8%1.3%17%

Consultations and Services

IndustryMedian visit → conversionEvidence
Dental4.3%Unbounce, C; forms and clicks mixed
Commercial / professional services6.1%Same source, C
Legal6.3%Same source, C

Post-submission stages are covered in Consultation and Photo-Upload Form Conversion. Korean store, subscription, and consultation figures are in the Korean Conversion Atlas.

Choosing Product Inputs

Find your sales model and category, and check the denominator.
Multiply only linked stages from the same table. Disclose any combination of different sources.
Set the interval using mean × kkk. If your position is unknown, use a wide interval fitted to the quantiles.
Update with pilot observations and keep a forecast record.

Related docs

Self-Serve SaaS Conversion

Compare freemium, trials, card requirements, and activation using vendor surveys, transaction logs, and randomized experiments to establish SaaS forecasting baselines.

App Subscription Conversion

Review download-to-trial-to-paid conversion by category, region, and price, plus hard paywalls, AI-app retention, and Korean trial-rule effects using transaction logs.

Metrics and Dashboards

CRM Standard · Connect CRM operations to a KPI tree and decision-ready dashboards.

Conversion Atlas by Channel

Compare click-through rates, conversion rates, and costs across Google search, Meta, TikTok, LinkedIn, email, and referrals with evidence grades.

Conversion Atlas by Role

Review cold-email replies, LinkedIn costs, product conversion figures, and gaps in public evidence for CMOs, developers, HR, finance, founders, and other roles.

On this page

EcommerceSaaS Sales ModelsSaaS Product TypesPaid Penetration from FilingsApp SubscriptionsEarly Startups and Desktop AppsReferral Programs by ProductConsultations and ServicesChoosing Product Inputs