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reopt Handbook
reopt Handbook
Customer Conversion Simulation

Reading Guide

How to Read the EvidenceConversion Rate Intervals

Conversion Atlas

Conversion Atlas by ChannelConversion Atlas by ProductConversion Atlas by RoleKorean Conversion Atlas

Paid Marketing

Paid Channel BaselinesReported and Incremental ConversionsCreative, Retargeting, and Saturation

Referral Marketing

Referral Funnel MetricsReferral Experiments and Limits to Spread

Partners and Influencers

Influencer Marketing ConversionPartnerships, Collaborations, and Sponsorships

Ecommerce

Ecommerce Conversion BaselinesEcommerce Funnels and CartsEffect Sizes of Ecommerce Levers

SaaS

Self-Serve SaaS ConversionEarly-Stage SaaS ConversionSales-Led Conversion

Apps

Mobile App Acquisition and RetentionApp Subscription ConversionDesktop App Conversion

Consultation and Application Forms

Building Forecasts

Expert Forecasts and CalibrationChoosing a Forecasting ModelLLM Synthetic Customers

Korean Case Studies

Korean Cases: Advertising and CommerceKorean Cases: Consultations, Finance, and Public Experiments

Appendix

Handbook›Customer Conversion Simulation›Ecommerce Conversion Baselines
한국어KOEnglishEN

Ecommerce Conversion Baselines

Compare global, UK, and Shopify conversion rates by category and device, and examine Korean public statistics and their limitations.

Written and reviewed by Eric Han · Co-founder & CTO, reopt

Key takeaways

  • Overall conversion is 1.3% globally, a 1.4% median on Shopify, and 1.97% in the UK/Ireland. Different denominators and samples prevent combining them.
  • Shopify stores' 10th–90th percentiles span 0.3–3.7%. Differences between stores far exceed differences between reported averages.
  • Device gaps point in different directions across datasets. Do not assume a fixed mobile disadvantage.
  • Conversion is also declining over time. Contentsquare reports retail conversion down 5.5% year over year in 2025.
  • For Korean stores, the vendor-reported 2.06% mean from 2021's top 100 stores was the only figure whose sample we could confirm. Do not use the unverified 1.33% figure.

Overall Conversion

ScopeValueDenominatorSample / periodEvidence
Shopify storesMedian 1.4%, mean 1.9%Purchasing sessions / all sessions436 stores, July–October 2026Littledata, C
UK / Ireland1.97%, versus 1.68% a year earlierTransactions / sessionsSeptember 2026; sample undisclosedIRP Commerce, C
Global1.3%Purchases per visitQ2 2026; underlying data undisclosedStatista, C

Littledata's quantiles provide a starting point for simulation.

Shopify store session-conversion quantiles
436 stores, July–October 2026, grade C
  • Top 10% threshold3.7%
  • Top 20% threshold2.7%
  • Median1.4%
  • Bottom 20% threshold0.5%
  • Bottom 10% threshold0.3%

Stores with fewer than 1,000 sessions or 90 purchases were excluded. New stores may perform below this distribution, but we found no public evidence quantifying that difference.

Categories

Shopify and UK/Ireland

CategoryShopify median (top 20% threshold)UK/Ireland, September 2026
Beauty / skincare2.5% (3.8%)—
Health / supplements2.4% (3.8%)2.83%
Food / beverage2.3% (3.3%)1.28%
Fashion / apparel1.0% (1.9%)1.62%
Home / furniture1.0% (1.8%)—

UK/Ireland-only figures include crafts 5.76%, kitchen/appliances 2.59%, pets 2.13%, sports 1.90%, automotive 1.76%, toys 1.07%, and baby products 0.44%. IRP is a single-month snapshot, with category-level year-over-year changes from −43% to +54%. Categories such as food and beverage rank differently across datasets. Do not depend on one month's value.

Contentsquare's retail dataset covers more than 2,200 sites and reports grocery desktop conversion of 11.4%, luxury desktop 1.4% and mobile 0.9%, and health/beauty mobile 3.4% (definition undisclosed, 2025, grade C).

Devices

SourceMobileDesktopDirection
Littledata medians1.5%1.4%Mobile slightly higher
Contentsquare retail—3.7%Desktop 40–70% higher

Mobile accounts for 77% of retail sessions and a 67% median on Shopify. Smartphones generated 56.4% of US holiday-season transactions (Adobe 2025 holiday season, B).

Because directions differ, measure your own device-specific rates before applying any adjustment. Do not derive a device correction from these benchmarks.

New and Returning Visitors

Contentsquare retail reports returning-visitor conversion of 2.5% versus 2.15% for new visitors; returning visitors account for 51% of traffic. Acquiring more new visitors through ads can therefore lower the site's overall conversion rate.

Aggregate and individual trends can move in opposite directions. In Moe and Fader's 2004 study of a 1998 Amazon panel, overall conversion rose from 13.2% in months 1–4 to 14.7% in months 5–8, while conversion among continuously active customers fell from 26.0% in months 3–4 to 20.8% in months 5–6 (grade B). The levels are historical, but the structural lesson remains: a rising average need not mean improvement.

Trends

  • Cross-industry conversion fell 5.1% year over year while AOV rose 6%, across more than 6,500 sites (Contentsquare 2026, C).
  • Retail conversion fell 5.5% and traffic 2.6% (Contentsquare, C).

Plans based on older benchmarks can be overly optimistic.

AI Traffic

Cafe24 D2C stores' AI-traffic conversion was 0.85%: ChatGPT 0.96%, Gemini 0.57%, and Perplexity 0.5%. No non-AI comparison average was disclosed (Byline Network, Q2 2026, C via press coverage). AI-referred US retail traffic rose 693.4% during the 2025 holiday season, from a small base.

Korea

Reliable official statistics cover transaction value, not conversion.

MetricValueEvidence
Online-shopping transaction valueKRW 24.2118 trillion, +7.3%August 2026 online-shopping trends, B
Mobile share of transaction value78.1%Same source, B
Category mixFood services 16.4%, food/beverage 14.6%, travel/transport 13.5%Same source, B
Categories with high mobile sharesFood services 99.1%, e-coupons 92.3%, children's/baby products 84.4%Press report, B (via press coverage)

The mobile figure of 78.1% is a transaction-value share, not a conversion rate. Food services pull it upward.

Two Korean figures are frequently quoted.

ValueContextEvidence
2.06%Top 100 stores by event count, about 237.17 million sessions, 2021. A CRM vendor's sample may favor mature storesBIGIN report, C
1.33%Sample and formula unverified. Do not useD

We found no official Cafe24, Naver, or Coupang conversion rates, nor Korean device-specific rates. Use internal store data, or start with BIGIN as a wide prior. Industry figures and cases appear in the Korean Conversion Atlas and Korean Cases.

Simulation Inputs

StageInputEvidence and conditions
Overall session conversionMean 1.8%, k=71k=71k=71Fitted to Littledata quantiles, C; distribution median about 1.4%
Fashion session conversionMean 1.25%, k=130k=130k=130Fitted to median 1.0% and top-20% threshold 1.9%, C
Other categoriesUse the median and top-20% threshold to fit a distribution; see quantile calculationsTable values
Korean storesMean 2.06%, mean × kkk around 1BIGIN 2021, C

Do not use Korea's 1.33%, single-month IRP category figures, or Statista's 1.3% with undisclosed underlying data as inputs.

Center the distribution on your category's Littledata median. The top-20% threshold is an upper reference, not the center.
For a new store or a high paid-traffic share, lower mean × kkk to widen the interval and assess affordability at the 5th percentile.
Use Conversion Rate Intervals to turn the figures into a distribution.
Update with two weeks of your own session data.

Related docs

Conversion Atlas by Product

Compare conversion ranges for ecommerce categories, SaaS sales models, app subscriptions, developer tools, and AI products with denominators and evidence grades.

Korean Cases: Advertising and Commerce

Review Naver log analyses, advertising-platform cases, store conversion, repeat-purchase filings, company experiments, and live commerce with denominators and evidence grades.

Search Marketing

New Brand Marketing Strategy · Use search intent to connect brand strategy with demand capture and landing page design.

Partnerships, Collaborations, and Sponsorships

Distinguish attribution and incrementality in affiliates, B2B partner win rates, podcast and newsletter sponsorships, and brand collaborations, with attention to denominators.

Ecommerce Funnels and Carts

Break down add-to-cart and checkout completion by category and device, interpret the 70% abandonment headline, and estimate the recoverable share.

On this page

Overall ConversionCategoriesShopify and UK/IrelandDevicesNew and Returning VisitorsTrendsAI TrafficKoreaSimulation Inputs