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reopt Handbook
reopt Handbook
Customer Conversion Simulation

Reading Guide

How to Read the EvidenceConversion Rate Intervals

Conversion Atlas

Conversion Atlas by ChannelConversion Atlas by ProductConversion Atlas by RoleKorean Conversion Atlas

Paid Marketing

Paid Channel BaselinesReported and Incremental ConversionsCreative, Retargeting, and Saturation

Referral Marketing

Referral Funnel MetricsReferral Experiments and Limits to Spread

Partners and Influencers

Influencer Marketing ConversionPartnerships, Collaborations, and Sponsorships

Ecommerce

Ecommerce Conversion BaselinesEcommerce Funnels and CartsEffect Sizes of Ecommerce Levers

SaaS

Self-Serve SaaS ConversionEarly-Stage SaaS ConversionSales-Led Conversion

Apps

Mobile App Acquisition and RetentionApp Subscription ConversionDesktop App Conversion

Consultation and Application Forms

Building Forecasts

Expert Forecasts and CalibrationChoosing a Forecasting ModelLLM Synthetic Customers

Korean Case Studies

Korean Cases: Advertising and CommerceKorean Cases: Consultations, Finance, and Public Experiments

Appendix

Handbook›Customer Conversion Simulation›Conversion Atlas by Channel
한국어KOEnglishEN

Conversion Atlas by Channel

Compare click-through rates, conversion rates, and costs across Google search, Meta, TikTok, LinkedIn, email, and referrals with evidence grades.

Written and reviewed by Eric Han · Co-founder & CTO, reopt

Key takeaways

  • In predominantly US vendor data, Google/Microsoft search has 8.18% CVR and $66.69 CPL; Meta lead campaigns have 8.54% CVR and $27.39 CPL.
  • Rankings change on an incremental basis. Across 225 D2C geographic experiments, median incremental ROAS was 3.30 for CTV, 2.92 for Meta, 1.46 for nonbrand search, and 0.70 for branded search.
  • Even among major LinkedIn sponsored formats, CTR varies by a factor of eleven, from 0.24% for video to 2.68% for Thought Leader ads (text ads: 0.02%). One channel average is a poor forecast input.
  • Referral conversion per message ranges from 0.5% to 10% across contexts, but the samples at those endpoints are fundamentally different.
  • We found no official Naver or Kakao industry benchmarks. Available Korean figures are in the Korean Conversion Atlas.

Paid Channel Baselines

Conversion definitions are mostly undisclosed. These are platform- or tag-attributed figures, not incremental outcomes.

ChannelScopeCTRCPCCVRCPL / CPAEvidence
Google/Microsoft searchAll industries, 2026 edition6.64%$5.428.18%CPL $66.69LocaliQ 2026, C
Meta trafficAll industries, 2026 edition1.93%$0.60——LocaliQ 2026, C
Meta leadsAll industries, 2026 edition2.70%$1.808.54%CPL $27.39Same source, C
TikTok retail/ecommerceAdvertiser medians, 20250.82%$0.262.83%—Two Minute Reports, C
LinkedIn Thought LeaderMedian, 211 B2B companies2.68%$2.29——ZenABM 2026, C
LinkedIn single imageSame sample0.42%$13.23——Same source, C
LinkedIn videoSame sample0.24%$15.61——Same source, C
Naver Powerlink / PlaceDirectly managed advertisers, 2024–2025Not an inputNot an input——See below

The Naver D-Ad Report (grade B) gives mean CPC 992, median 267, and consulting-account CTR 1.93 → 1.98 without units. Mean clicks divided by mean impressions in the same chart are about 0.2% (calculated). Do not use these as inputs. We removed Powerlink CTR of 0.8–2.4%, CPC of about KRW 530, and Bizboard CTR of 0.5–1.5% because their sources could not be verified. See values to avoid.

An 8% CVR is not a site conversion rate

LocaliQ's 8.18% measures actions configured as “conversions” in agency-client campaigns; the action definitions are undisclosed. It cannot be compared directly with a store's 1.4% session conversion rate.

Comparing Incremental Channel Performance

These figures come from geographic experiments rather than attribution. They measure only D2C revenue, and the measurement vendor's customer sample is self-selected.

Median incremental ROAS by channel
225 geographic experiments measuring D2C revenue, grade C
  • CTV (Tatari)3.30n=18
  • Performance Max2.98
  • Meta2.92n=63
  • YouTube2.17
  • Google Shopping1.86
  • Nonbrand search1.46
  • TikTok0.94n=10
  • Branded search0.70
Vertical line: ROAS 1

Source: Stella, 2025 DTC Incrementality Benchmarks: 225 geographic experiments, August 2024–December 2025, 90% Shopify, grade C. This is a measurement vendor's report; the author recommends discounting its benchmarks by 15–20%.

Nonpaid Channels

ChannelMetricValueDenominatorEvidence
Abandoned-cart emailAttributed revenue per recipient$6.77; top 10% $13.70RecipientKlaviyo 2026, C
Abandoned-cart SMSAttributed revenue per recipient$4.48RecipientSame source, C
Cold emailReply rate0.45%Messages sentBelkins 2026, C
Cold emailReply rate4.5%RecipientsHunter 2026, C
Cold callsSuccess rate2.7%UndisclosedCognism 2026, C
Website leadsLead → opportunity31.3%CRM leads, 2014Implisit / Salesforce, C
Employee/customer referralsLead → win3.6%CRM leads, 2014Same source, C
AI-search trafficVisit → purchase0.85%; ChatGPT 0.96%Visits to Cafe24 D2C stores, Q2 2026Byline Network, C (via press coverage)
Consultation landing pagesVisit → conversionDental 4.3%, professional services 6.1%, legal 6.3%Page visits; forms and clicks mixedUnbounce, C

Ecommerce Conversion by Traffic Source

We found no international primary dataset. Korea has BIGIN's 2021 last-touch figures (grade C). Promodo's secondary citation of Convertibles reports email 4.0–5.3%, direct 3.3–3.8%, referral sites 2.9–3.5%, organic search 2.7–3.0%, paid search 2.0–2.5%, and paid social 0.7–1.2% (D; sample and period undisclosed). Use only as directional ordering, not numerical inputs.

Partner and Influencer Routes

RouteMetricValueNatureEvidence
Influencer codesMedian ROIS1.66 (revenue ÷ cost = 2.66, calculated)Attributed, European D2C fashion; not directly comparable with ROASBeichert et al., B
PodcastsBrand conversions per impression; attributed CPA0.021%; $129AttributedPodscribe, C
PodcastsIncremental share of attributed conversions28%Control-group construction undisclosedSame source, C
Apple Ads for appsUS generic CPI$5.31MedianAppTweak, C

Referral Routes

MetricValueContextEvidence
Purchases per referralAbout 0.51% (calculated)Online retail, 15.65 million referrals, 2001–2003Leskovec et al., B
Adoptions per invitation message10% (16/160)Facebook app experiment, small sampleAral and Walker, A
Adoptions per automatic notificationAbout 1%Same experimentSame source, A
Bank referral-link click → conversion13.4%Industry median; sample undisclosedExtole, C
B2B referral-link click → conversion1.3%Same sourceSame source, C

Denominators differ across rows. Do not compare them directly. See Referral Funnel Metrics.

How to Choose a Channel

Find a baseline with the same denominator, then set an interval using concentration k.
Divide by the reported-to-incremental multiplier to estimate a range for incremental conversions. If no public multiplier exists, use a wide interval labeled as an author judgment until you run an internal experiment.
Enter a budget and calculate conversion-count and CAC intervals as in the Worked Scenarios.
Start a pilot with a budget you can afford at the lower end of the interval, the 5th percentile.

Related docs

Paid Channel Baselines

Establish pre-spend baselines using industry CTR, CPC, CVR, and CPL for Google search, Meta, TikTok, and LinkedIn, and identify gaps for Korean channels.

Conversion Atlas by Product

Compare conversion ranges for ecommerce categories, SaaS sales models, app subscriptions, developer tools, and AI products with denominators and evidence grades.

Search Marketing

New Brand Marketing Strategy · Use search intent to connect brand strategy with demand capture and landing page design.

Metrics and Operating Rhythm

AI-Era GTM · Measure AI GTM performance and connect it to weekly, monthly, and quarterly operating cadence.

Conversion Rate Intervals

Turn a benchmark into a beta distribution, simulate funnel uncertainty with Monte Carlo, and update the forecast with pilot results using interactive calculators.

Conversion Atlas by Product

Compare conversion ranges for ecommerce categories, SaaS sales models, app subscriptions, developer tools, and AI products with denominators and evidence grades.

On this page

Paid Channel BaselinesComparing Incremental Channel PerformanceNonpaid ChannelsEcommerce Conversion by Traffic SourcePartner and Influencer RoutesReferral RoutesHow to Choose a Channel