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reopt Handbook
reopt Handbook
Customer Conversion Simulation

Reading Guide

How to Read the EvidenceConversion Rate Intervals

Conversion Atlas

Conversion Atlas by ChannelConversion Atlas by ProductConversion Atlas by RoleKorean Conversion Atlas

Paid Marketing

Paid Channel BaselinesReported and Incremental ConversionsCreative, Retargeting, and Saturation

Referral Marketing

Referral Funnel MetricsReferral Experiments and Limits to Spread

Partners and Influencers

Influencer Marketing ConversionPartnerships, Collaborations, and Sponsorships

Ecommerce

Ecommerce Conversion BaselinesEcommerce Funnels and CartsEffect Sizes of Ecommerce Levers

SaaS

Self-Serve SaaS ConversionEarly-Stage SaaS ConversionSales-Led Conversion

Apps

Mobile App Acquisition and RetentionApp Subscription ConversionDesktop App Conversion

Consultation and Application Forms

Building Forecasts

Expert Forecasts and CalibrationChoosing a Forecasting ModelLLM Synthetic Customers

Korean Case Studies

Korean Cases: Advertising and CommerceKorean Cases: Consultations, Finance, and Public Experiments

Appendix

Handbook›Customer Conversion Simulation›Mobile App Acquisition and Retention
한국어KOEnglishEN

Mobile App Acquisition and Retention

Review store-view-to-install conversion, Apple Ads costs, retention, permission consent, paywalls, and new-app revenue distributions with explicit denominators.

Written and reviewed by Eric Han · Co-founder & CTO, reopt

Key takeaways

  • Store “conversion” has two denominators. The same US App Store dataset reports 3.8% per impression and 8.56% per page view; an earlier page-view figure was 25%. Never use a value without its denominator.
  • Median US Apple Ads search CPI ranges from $1.33 for shopping to $26.70 for sports. Startups with little branded search are better represented by Generic at $5.31 and Competitor at $6.78.
  • US app retention medians, for apps with at least 1,000 D30 downloads, are D1 27.3%, D7 9.2%, D30 3.9% (method undisclosed, D). Amplitude's 7% is a top-quartile threshold for products across industries, a different population.
  • ATT consent is 38% among users shown the prompt in Q1 2026, versus 13.85% among first-launch devices in Q2 2024.
  • New subscription apps' median monthly revenue one year after launch is about $72; 17.3% reach $1K monthly within two years. These apps have recorded subscription revenue, likely making the figures higher than for all new apps (author judgment).

The Full Impression-to-Paid Funnel Is Not Connected

We found no large public dataset connecting every stage. Within-source segments include:

SourceConnected stagesFigures
AppTweak, Korean Apple AdsImpression → tap → install6.30% × 51% ≈ 3.2%, calculated; CPI $1.84
SplitMetricsImpression → tap → download9.7% × 66.2% ≈ 6.4%, calculated; CPA $3.76
Adapty State of PaywallsPaywall view → paidUS 2.75%; trial → paid 26.2%
RevenueCatDownload → trial → paidSee App Subscription Conversion

Products of means or medians are approximations. Download-to-paywall-view rates are undisclosed, leaving a gap between the segments.

Store View to Install

We found no overall benchmark directly published by Apple or Google. Apple provides peer-group percentiles inside App Store Connect.

ValueDenominatorScopeEvidence
3.8%First downloads ÷ impressionsUS App Store overall, 2025AppTweak, C
8.56%First downloads ÷ page viewsSameSame source, C
25%Downloads ÷ page viewsFirst half 2024, secondary citationAdapty, D

Do not use AppTweak's 3.8% or 8.56% store conversion as inputs

The 2025 value is about one-third of the first-half-2024 figure, and traces of older values remain on the page, suggesting changed aggregation (author judgment). Do not interpret this as an actual decline.

AppFollow's public table reports US App Store category medians for August 2026 (C). Search and Browse use impressions, while Referrer paths use product-page views; do not compare those groups.

PathInstall conversionDenominator
Search2.6–12.4%Impressions
Browse0.1–2.5%Impressions
App Referrer4.5–53.0%Product-page views
Web Referrer4.0–75.1%Product-page views

About 65% of App Store downloads occur directly after search (Apple Ads, 2022, platform figure).

We found no average store A/B effect or win rate. The 5–50% in Google's Tapps case describes selected successes; the +3% and +8% in Apple help are illustrative examples.

Apple Ads Costs

Median US Apple Ads search-results CPI
Median monthly app/campaign rows, not spend-weighted; about 2,800 advertisers, 2025, grade C
  • Sports$26.70
  • Finance$9.65
  • Business$6.86
  • Entertainment$4.99
  • Games$4.63
  • Health / fitness$3.77
  • Travel$3.70
  • Productivity$3.58
  • Education$2.91
  • Photo / video$2.79
  • Lifestyle$2.62
  • Utilities$2.25
  • Books$1.53
  • Social$1.45
  • Shopping$1.33
Source: AppTweak
Campaign type, US appsMedian CPI
Brand$2.84
Discovery$3.10
Generic$5.31
Competitor$6.78

Tap-to-install medians by placement are 56% for search results, 15% for Search Tab / Product Pages, and 7.7% for Today Tab (about 3,500 apps, 38 countries). The high rates of 56–66% apply only to people who have already tapped an ad, and branded campaigns push them upward. Generic/Competitor figures are more relevant to startups with little branded demand (author judgment). One solo habit app's observed CPI around $8.85 points in the same direction but is only one case.

Custom product pages show 58.7% versus 55.5%, a self-selected comparison. We found no official Google App Campaign or Meta app-ad benchmarks.

Post-Install Retention

ScopeD1D7D30Evidence
US apps, at least 1,000 D30 downloads27.3%9.2%3.9%MWM, Q3 2025, methodology undisclosed, D
Social31.9%12.3%5.9%Same source
Lifestyle23.6%9.6%4.8%Same source
Productivity23.0%8.9%4.5%Same source
Education24.9%8.6%3.6%Same source
Games36.6%9.3%2.9%Same source
Mobile games overallAbout 22%About 4%About 0.7%GameAnalytics 2026 summary, D

For games, MWM's D7/D30 values of 9.3%/2.9% differ from GameAnalytics' roughly 4%/0.7%. Use only for orders of magnitude.

  • Amplitude's 7% rule is a top-quartile threshold across more than 2,600 companies, not evidence that 7% causes growth. The median product also loses more than 98% of new users by week two.
  • GameAnalytics' 2025 report, using 2024 data (C), gives median game D7 retention of 3.42–3.94%, with the upper quartile at 7–8%. A tool widely used by indie and early teams may be more representative of new studios (author judgment).

Do not rely on MWM's country table

D1 ranges only from 27.1% to 27.5% across eight countries. Compared with GameAnalytics' regional differences, this is too flat to support “Korea is the same as the US” (author judgment).

Permission Consent

MetricValueDenominatorEvidence
ATT consent38%, games 39%, Q1 2026Users shown the promptAdjust press release, C
ATT-authorized devices13.85%, Q2 2024First-launch devicesSingular, C
Median push opt-inAndroid 53.3%, iOS 48.85%Monthly average across all app users, not first-prompt acceptanceAirship 2026, C

We found no primary onboarding-stage abandonment benchmark. Vendor blog figures conflict.

Paywalls and New-App Outcomes

Adapty State of Paywalls covers App Store data from more than 30,000 apps, October 2025–September 2026 (paywall vendor, B). Median 30-day view-to-paid conversion is 2.75% in the US and 1.38% in Europe. Of trials, 32% cancel within one hour and 44% within 24 hours.

New-app distributions from RevenueCat 2026, grade B:

MetricValue
Median monthly revenue one year after launchAbout $72; top 25% $429; top 10% $2,574
Reaching $1K monthly within two years17.3%; Business 14.7%
Reaching $10K monthly within two years4.6%; Business 1.6%
Median time to milestone$1K: 58 days; $10K: 109 days, only among apps reaching it
Median revenue per install, D14 and D60$0.23, $0.34
Revenue share by launch periodBefore 2020: 69%; 2025 onward: 3%

Comparing $0.34 revenue per install with CPI above illustrates how difficult it can be to recover paid acquisition costs. Because sources differ, use it only as an order-of-magnitude check.

We found no recent direct measurement of “most apps earn no revenue” across all apps. Sensor Tower's Q3 2019 top-1% concentration estimate—$20.5 billion of $22 billion—uses publishers, not apps.

One public example, solo habit app Habit Doom, reports 341 first downloads and $59 revenue in 90 days. It is a self-disclosed case, not a distribution.

Randomized Experiments

ExperimentContextResultGrade
Cao et al., JMRAbout two million existing free users of a Chinese education appHard conversion increased subscriptions 124% and revenue 102%; not new installsA (summary)
Yancey and Settles, KDD 2020Duolingo push-copy optimization, two weeksNew-user D7 +2.0%, DAU +0.5%; company-affiliated authors, relative gains at a large appA

We found no peer-reviewed randomized study of onboarding or pricing in newly launched apps.

Korea

Few usable figures are public.

MetricValueEvidence
Apple Ads tap rate; tap → install6.30%, 51%AppTweak, C
Apple Ads CPI; CPM$1.84, $48.11Same source, C
Game D1; IPM20%, 6.13Adjust coverage, C via press

Millie's Library filings report free-subscription-to-paid conversion of 34.7–37.3% (Korean Cases, B). We found no recent Korean ATT or push-consent figures. In 2021, AppsFlyer reported ATT 37% during the two weeks after iOS 14.5 (C via press), while Singular reported about 24% in May (C). Mobile Index and Wiseapp public reports provide rankings and spending estimates, not conversion rates.

Simulation Inputs

StageInputEvidence and conditions
US CPIGeneric $5.31; Competitor $6.78; US search in the country table $4.06AppTweak, C; little branded search
Korean CPI$1.84Same country table; includes brand campaigns. Different aggregation from US Generic; do not compare directly
Download → paid within 35 daysMean 3.1%, k=25k=25k=25Fitted to RevenueCat median 2.0%, B; mid-price upper quartile used as a proxy
First-year revenue per paying customer$23 overall, $32 North AmericaRevenueCat median first-year realized value per payer, B

Do not use AppTweak's 3.8%/8.56% store conversion, Adapty's 25%, MWM's country table, or Amplitude's 7% as inputs.

Paid app-acquisition intervals

Choose CPI to estimate installs and paid conversion. CPI and conversion come from different sources, so this is an order-of-magnitude check. The conversion mean is raised so the distribution's median matches the source median.

Load a benchmark
Fixed inputs
Stage rates

k sets the spread around the mean. For the same mean, a larger k narrows the interval. A small mean×k skews the distribution and pulls the median below the mean.

Download → paid within 35 daysMean fitted to RevenueCat overall median of 2.0%
Paying customers
18customers
90% interval 1customers ~ 95customers
Mean 29customers · Actual count 0customers ~ 96customers · Chance of zero 5.8%
Cost per paying customer
$276
90% interval $53 ~ $7,200
First-year revenue ÷ budget
0.08×
90% interval 0.00× ~ 0.44×
Distribution of Paying customers5% 1customers · Median 18customers · 95% 95customers
0customers72customers144customers

8,000 runs. The 90% interval holds only rate uncertainty around the expected value; the actual count adds chance variation in counts. Vertical lines mark the 5th percentile, median (darker), and 95th. The last bin collects values above the 99th percentile.

Related docs

App Subscription Conversion

Review download-to-trial-to-paid conversion by category, region, and price, plus hard paywalls, AI-app retention, and Korean trial-rule effects using transaction logs.

Conversion Atlas by Product

Compare conversion ranges for ecommerce categories, SaaS sales models, app subscriptions, developer tools, and AI products with denominators and evidence grades.

Sales-Led Conversion

Review lead-to-opportunity-to-win rates, lead-source differences, and email, phone, and LinkedIn outreach metrics while excluding figures with unclear origins.

App Subscription Conversion

Review download-to-trial-to-paid conversion by category, region, and price, plus hard paywalls, AI-app retention, and Korean trial-rule effects using transaction logs.

On this page

The Full Impression-to-Paid Funnel Is Not ConnectedStore View to InstallApple Ads CostsPost-Install RetentionPermission ConsentPaywalls and New-App OutcomesRandomized ExperimentsKoreaSimulation Inputs